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Read e-book online A Theory of Case-Based Decisions PDF

By Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler

ISBN-10: 0521003113

ISBN-13: 9780521003117

Gilboa and Schmeidler supply a brand new paradigm for modeling choice making lower than uncertainty. Case-based choice conception means that humans make judgements by way of analogies to earlier situations: they generally tend to decide on acts that played good some time past in related occasions, and to prevent acts that played poorly. The authors describe the final conception and its courting to making plans, repeated selection difficulties, inductive inference, and studying. They spotlight its mathematical and philosophical foundations and examine it to anticipated application thought in addition to to rule-based systems.

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"This textual content is a wonderful advent to optimization theory." Richard A. Chechile, magazine of Mathematical Psychology

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Example text

In fact, almost any case in which the theory seems to be refuted can be re-interpreted in a way that conforms to the theory. One may always enrich the model, redefining the alternatives involved, in such a way that apparent refutations are reconciled. 1 above. There is no canon of application that would state precisely what are the real world phenomena to which utility theory may be applied. In certain situations, such as carefully designed laboratory experiments, there is only one reasonable mapping from the formal structure to observed phenomena.

In view of this result, we tend to view U-maximization as the primary formula, despite the fact that it seems inappropriate for repeated problems with a constant aspiration level. 2 Act similarity While it stands to reason that past performance of an act would affect the act’s evaluation in current problems, it is not necessarily the case that past performance is the only relevant factor in the evaluation process. Specifically, an act’s desirability may be affected by the performance of other, similar acts.

A week later Jane is faced with the same problem. Regardless of her aspiration level, it seems obvious that she will choose road A again. ) This example shows that relevant cases may also be hypothetical, or counterfactual. ” This may be modeled as a hypothetical case in which she took road B and arrived at the airport with a considerable delay. Hypothetical cases may endow a case-based decision maker with reasoning abilities she would otherwise lack. Moreover, it seems that any knowledge the agent possesses and any conclusions she deduces from it can, inasmuch as they are relevant to the decision at hand, be reflected by hypothetical cases.

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A Theory of Case-Based Decisions by Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler


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